The climate crisis requires a rapid and effective reduction in greenhouse gas emissions in all sectors on a global scale. States, which own and control around half of global oil and gas production, can contribute to this goal by, for example, selling off assets, leaving oil and gas resources in the ground or redirecting fossil fuel investments to renewable energy investments. However, we lack knowledge about the concrete involvement of states in climate-damaging assets: Where and how do states act as owners of fossil fuels? What factors prevent the divestment of these assets? And finally, what factors could facilitate states’ efforts to reduce their ownership of ‘fossil’ assets? To answer these questions, the DECARB project will develop a large database mapping the investment profiles of states as owners. In addition, the project will investigate the extent to which policies and relationships between states, companies and political elites inhibit or promote a green transition. By combining qualitative and quantitative knowledge, the DECARB project will deliver a set of concrete recommendations on how states can become more green owners and investors. The project will provide civil society actors with tools to monitor the extent to which governments deliver on their green transition promises.
The project consists of two work packages:
Work package 1: Creating and analyzing a unique database on state carbon investment and ownership.
The first objective of the DECARB project is to develop a cross-temporal database of state carbon capital across different asset classes to map the deep entanglements of states as carbon investors and owners globally. The major obstacle for mapping global state carbon capital is a lack of reliable data with worldwide coverage, also due to the reporting problems of common macroeconomic statistics. Firm-level data is a more robust source
of information that enables identifying the state-owned entities that send investment, and the carbon assets that are investment targets. The project team will set up and analyze raw firm-level investment and ownership data by employing computational social science methods, such as different
quality checks, cleaning steps and analysis techniques. The output consists of a database entailing the comprehensive investment profile of each state as an owner, allowing for further analysis such as sectoral or geographical exploration.
Work package 2: Explaining the decarbonization obstacles and drivers of state carbon capital regimes; and devising strategies for decarbonization
The second objective is to develop a strategic framework for decarbonizing the state as owner, building on initial results of work package 1. The second package consists of, first, explaining the factors that frustrate or propel decarbonization efforts, and, second, using these findings to devise strategies for state capital decarbonization (overall project aim). We know from the transition literature on incumbent fossil regimes and their resistance to green transformations that such regimes are the main obstacles to effective decarbonization due to the ‘power and politics’ (Frank W. Geels) condensed in them – for example in the networks between powerful national fossil firms and political and economic elites. However, understanding the functioning of these regimes also provides the possibility of identifying potential drivers of and opportunities for decarbonization – for example intra-elite power struggles accelerating
carbon disinvestment. Methodologically, the work package will draw on methods such as, for example, comparative social network analysis to map and compare networks of corporate and political control, teasing out
which factors strengthen and which weaken these networks forestalling decarbonization. Finally, these factors will form the input for the development of viable state capital decarbonization strategies.